It seems to be a trend that no more than 2 film adaptations are nominated, so Shrek and 9 to 5 will likely compete against each other for a spot (few will dispute that Billy Elliot is in). If 9 to 5 is a hit, it could slip in, but right now I think Shrek will take it. Next to Normal sweeps in to qualify and I think it has a good chance of stealing a spot from Story of My Life. They are both apparently fairly intimate shows, but since NTN already has some built-in audience from its audience from its previous runs, it might prove more successful. For the last spot, Rock of Ages has gotten great audience response, so I think it will be a hit which should result in a token nom.