I’m a firm believer in the out of town process, but let’s be real: When was the last time a show was AWFUL out of town and improved enough for Broadway to get strong critical reviews and recoup?
- SUFFS made positive changes but flopped financially. DEVIL WEARS PRADA changed a lot but never became great. BEETLEJUICE became pretty good but its finances are dubious.
- BEACHES, LEMPICKA, BAD CINDERELLA, REDWOOD, ONCE UPON A ONE MORE TIME, and QUEEN OF VERSAILLES did go out of town yet were still wretched.
- The financial ecosystem that birthed NEXT TO NORMAL and HADESTOWN and COME FROM AWAY is not the Broadway of 2027 (and those were intimate shows where quality and emotion mattered more).
Theatre tech nowadays makes it hard to safely make big changes when a show is up and running. Adding a song means taking time to write it, orchestrate it, teach it, design it, and re-tech it. Making changes in a rehearsal studio/workshop is easier.
With workshops for potential investors and focus groups, the team can get a pretty good sense of how people are going to react to a show. Whether the team actually makes those changes is a different matter. (see: SMASH and NEW YORK NEW YORK)
You open out of town to a mixed-negative response? Congrats, you're now damaged goods, and the producer has to twist into a pretzel to show investors how much it’s changed, while spending more money on more workshops. (See: PURPLE RAIN and DOLLY, and the aforementioned SUFFS, and a slew of shows that will never make it to NYC.)
Wheeldon opened MJ cold in New York, but that might be a fluke.
We’ll see this happening more and more. I don’t know that it will have a significant impact on quality and length of run in the grand scheme.